I've made my assumptions based on a 1st level Human Fighter made with the standard ability array which gives the fighter a starting Str 16, and I've bumped that Str up every level I could.
The columns shown are only those where the to hit bonus goes up by +1 (so levels 2 and 3 have the same probabilities as Level 1, etc).
| AC of Target |
1st Lvl Str 16 +5 |
4th Lvl Str 18 +6 |
5th Lvl Str 18 +7 |
6th Lvl Str 20 +8 |
9th Lvl Str 20 +9 |
13th Lvl Str 20 +10 |
17th Lvl Str 20 +11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 64.00% | 72.25% | 81.00% | 90.25% | 100.00% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 11 | 56.25% | 64.00% | 72.25% | 81.00% | 90.25% | 100.00% | 100.00% |
| 12 | 49.00% | 56.25% | 64.00% | 72.25% | 81.00% | 90.25% | 100.00% |
| 13 | 42.25% | 49.00% | 56.25% | 64.00% | 72.25% | 81.00% | 90.25% |
| 14 | 36.00% | 42.25% | 49.00% | 56.25% | 64.00% | 72.25% | 81.00% |
| 15 | 30.25% | 36.00% | 42.25% | 49.00% | 56.25% | 64.00% | 72.25% |
| 16 | 25.00% | 30.25% | 36.00% | 42.25% | 49.00% | 56.25% | 64.00% |
| 17 | 20.25% | 25.00% | 30.25% | 36.00% | 42.25% | 49.00% | 56.25% |
| 18 | 16.00% | 20.25% | 25.00% | 30.25% | 36.00% | 42.25% | 49.00% |
| 19 | 12.25% | 16.00% | 20.25% | 25.00% | 30.25% | 36.00% | 42.25% |
| 20 | 9.00% | 12.25% | 16.00% | 20.25% | 25.00% | 30.25% | 36.00% |
| 21 | 6.25% | 9.00% | 12.25% | 16.00% | 20.25% | 25.00% | 30.25% |
| 22 | 4.00% | 6.25% | 9.00% | 12.25% | 16.00% | 20.25% | 25.00% |
| 23 | 2.25% | 4.00% | 6.25% | 9.00% | 12.25% | 16.00% | 20.25% |
| 24 | 1.00% | 2.25% | 4.00% | 6.25% | 9.00% | 12.25% | 16.00% |
| 25 | 0.25% | 1.00% | 2.25% | 4.00% | 6.25% | 9.00% | 12.25% |
When you consider plate armor is like AC 20 in 5E, seems very reasonable.
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